How did our 2010 predictions fare?

As you may know, we make twelve predictions every year, and every year, we go back to try to assess our accuracy. So, let's see how we did with our 2010 predictions from last December.

1) Enterprise Content Management and Document Management will go their separate ways
This has largely happened, primarily because customers have persuaded vendors to (mostly) give up the ghost on "enterprise" content management and return to practical applications.

2) Faceted search will pervade enterprise applications
This has definitely happened, though what constitutes best practices is evolving (c.f., difference between SharePoint Search and FAST Search results).

3) Digital Asset Management vendors will focus on SharePoint integration over geographic expansion
Definitely. The North America / EMEA divide in this marketplace remains stark, while vendors push SharePoint "connectors" -- albeit of varying stages of maturity.

4) Mobile will come of age for Document Management and Enterprise Search
Yep, though that was an easy one; questions about usability, persistence, security, etc. still remain.

5) WCM vendors will give more love to Intranets
No, didn't happen. Wishful thinking.

6) Enterprises will lead thick client backlash
Yes, I think we are seeing the back-side of flex-based clients for enterprise applications.

7) Cloud alternatives will become pervasive
Sure, but that was another easy one.

8) Document Services will become an integrated part of ECM
Sort of. ECM vendors are starting to promote document composition services more, but integration with other document management systems remains thin.

9) Gadgets and Widgets will sweep the Portal world
Definitely true, and more interestingly, they are making inroads into the non-portal world.

10) Records Managers face renewed resistance
We argued that, "the movement for simple retention rather than detailed RM practices will continue to gain ground." And by that measure, I'd say yes.

11) Internal and external social and collaboration technologies will diverge
Yes, though to be honest, this has been an organic trend in the marketplace for a couple years, mitigated only by an emerging trend to extend some internal collaboration services to limited sets of external partners.

12) Multi-lingual requirements will rise to the fore
Sort of. This is obviously a long-term trend, yet some smaller vendors still suffer in delivering multi-lingual capabilities.

So, on the whole, we were 10 for 12. That's slightly better than 2009's 9 out of 12, though one might argue that the future is getting clearer rather than us becoming more prescient.

Meantime, stay on the look-out for our 2011 predictions, which promise to be a thought-provoking collection...

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