We have recently published our Document Management - ECM Market Analysis for 2012, and as a where-is-the-marketplace-headed snapshot, I think it's an interesting one.  I have been writing these since the late 1990s and it's one of several analyst tasks that I really look forward to.

Having done so many, I tend to approach marketplace overviews with real skepticism, for I can no better predict the next 10 years of the ECM industry than my 12 year-old daughter could. What I can do though is look closely at the events of 2011 and detail where these could lead us in 2012. And that is just what I have done in this report: keeping it real.

So what are our conclusions? Well, some of them should come as no surprise.

• The Document Management market continues to grow strongly despite some fragmentation
• Cloud-based file sharing providers will make an impact in 2012, particularly as an alternative to SharePoint
• The skills shortage we have noted in past years is reaching a critical point

There is much more of course in the actual report, including an updated "Cross Check" chart detailing the relative risk and evolution of ECM vendors.

Each year I write these, I wonder what will be different from the previous years, since this is in some respects a very mature market. Yet there always is change, and 2012 looks set to be one of the most turbulent in a long time.